Despite RJD Defeat MY Factor Remains Strong Yet Fails To Secure Grand Alliance Victory

Bihar: Recent Bihar Assembly elections showed that although RJD suffered a major defeat, its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank stayed loyal. Ascendia Strategies election analysis confirmed that RJD's core community-based support did not weaken. Despite low seat count, the data shows consistent voter commitment. However, while the loyalty remained intact, it was not enough to win. Other caste groups shifted their preference, influencing final results. The lack of broader outreach undermined overall performance.

How Strong Was The MY Vote Share?

According to the report, Mahagathbandhan received 38 percent of total votes, out of which 60 percent came from Muslim and Yadav communities alone. Yadavs contributed 10 percent while Muslims accounted for 13 percent share. This reflects continued dominance of the MY base in RJD’s electoral influence. Analysts say no significant drop was noticed in traditional voter trust. Yet, the concentration of votes within limited groups restricted wider penetration. The party relied heavily on core backing without expanding reach.

How Did NDA Secure Majority Victory?

NDA won 202 out of 243 seats by obtaining 47 percent overall vote share. In this, support from Yadavs was limited to only 3 percent and Muslims just 2 percent. This proves NDA’s win was not due to division of MY votes but through stronger support from other communities. Their strategy involved outreach beyond traditional support patterns. Broad caste representation contributed directly to the landslide victory. The result highlighted RJD’s lack of diversity in voter engagement.

Which Communities Supported NDA More?

Ascendia analysis revealed that a sizeable number of upper caste voters supported NDA. Seven percent of NDA’s total vote share came from the general category, compared to just two percent for Mahagathbandhan. Additionally, non-Yadav OBC groups backed NDA strongly, giving it seven percent support versus only three percent to Mahagathbandhan. Experts believe inclusive electoral approach helped NDA gain traction. Community alignment shifted decisively towards broader leadership. It strengthened their political dominance.

What Role Did EBC Voters Play?

NDA received significant support from the Extremely Backward Classes. Nearly 15 percent of EBC voters sided with NDA, while only six percent supported Mahagathbandhan. This shift played a major role in final outcome. Analysts say neglecting EBC concerns weakened opposition alliance performance. Strong campaigning at ground level benefited NDA candidates. EBC sentiment aligned with NDA’s policy direction. Their consolidated backing became a turning factor.

How Did SC And ST Votes Influence Results?

The report states that 13 percent of NDA vote share came from SC-ST communities. In contrast, Mahagathbandhan received only four percent from the same voter groups. This gap reflects differential appeal between alliances. NDA gained confidence among marginalised sections through local promises and structured outreach. Opposition failed to secure similar commitment from communities. SC-ST alignment further expanded NDA’s majority span. It proved critical in seat conversion.

What Political Message Does This Election Send?

Experts conclude that while MY factor remains intact for RJD, it failed to translate into electoral victory due to limited reach outside core communities. NDA’s win stemmed from multi-community support rather than weakening of RJD’s base. Ascendia suggests future political strategies must prioritise inclusive voter alignment. Reliance on traditional base alone may not yield winning outcomes. Wider demographic consolidation becomes essential for sustainable electoral success.